As I watch the 2016 election roll out, and again watch (with my usual disappointment) the pundits talk about the election, I am amazed that people seem to lack a simple understanding of electoral math.

Let's start with a simple story now dominating everyone's attention.  Donald Trump's so-called "surge."  

Well to understand that, remember two important things: if the polls are right he has about 30% support of REPUBLICANS and has a big lead (mean a plurality) over the other 15 candidates in the race.  

Two important things there that matter from a math point of view: Republicans represent about 40% of the electorate, and since there are a very large number of candidates, the non-Trump is widely disbursed.

On the latter point, as candidates start dropping out of the race, those supporting them may or may not support Trump (assuming he hasn't dropped out). Some wiser pundits think he "has topped out" at 30% because he is pulling mostly from a fringe of the electorate, and if so, then those supporting other candidates may disproportionately go to more conventional candidates (such as Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Christie).  Thus, Trump may stay close to 30-40% of the Republicans, or start dropping as voters move to the winner.

Second, since Trump may have about 30% of the support of about 40% of the electorate, this means only about 12% of the voters support him.  That means a very small percentage do.  And many many people do not -- as the evidence from recent polls show, such as the one that shows that a remarkable 70% of Latinos have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, find him "insulting and offensive".