Browsing Archive: May, 2016

Electoral Math

Posted by Timothy McBride on Sunday, May 22, 2016, In : Election2016 

One of the common mistakes people seem to make around now, in every Presidential election year, is to become fixated on nationwide popular vote polls.

The problem is that these are rather meaningless in telling us much at all about who will win the election.  That is because we elect a President using the ELECTORAL COLLEGE, not by popular vote.  Why this simple fact seems to be lost on the media is beyond me.  I can understand more why the public is confused by this we do such a poor job of te...
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Delegate math

Posted by Timothy McBride on Sunday, May 22, 2016, In : Election2016 

The backers of Bernie Sanders make a big deal of complaining about the "Superdelegates," claiming that the process is "unfair."  More on that later.

But consider this. What if the Democrats had NO Superdelegates?  Let's just assume for discussion the nomination was based not on choosing 4,763 delegates but 4,051 "pledged delegates" (chosen by the process of primaries and caucuses).

So far, here is how the numbers break out for the two candidates on pledged delegates:

Clinton:   1,769 (54%)
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What Explains the Trump Phenomenon?

Posted by Timothy McBride on Friday, May 13, 2016, In : Election2016 

Like almost everyone, I have been trying to figure out how it was possible that a person who has never held public office before, and who may not actually be a Republican, could be on the verge of gaining the Republican nomination.   Many conservatives cannot figure this out, especially given that he holds views that are diametrically opposed to most Republican orthodoxy.

There is no doubt that Trump has gained a large number of votes, over 10 million, which at this point are the second most e...

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About Me

Timothy McBride Timothy D. McBride, Ph.D. is a Professor at the Brown School, Washington University in St. Louis. Here you can find musings on health policy and other issues. Opinions are mine and not those of my employer. Contact: