More Interesting Analysis from the Employment Report, September 2012

Posted by Timothy McBride on Saturday, February 2, 2013 Under: Miscellaneous

There has been a lot of excellent analysis written on the employment report today.  Of course, as always, much of the best quick-turn around analysis has appeared on the "Wonkblog" by Ezra Klein and his colleagues:

The young are leaving the Labor Force and the Old are flocking to it:

  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/07/the-young-are-leaving-the-labor-force-the-old-are-flocking-to-it/ 

Discouraged workers are NOT why unemployment rates fell
  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/07/discouraged-workers-are-not-why-unemployment-fell/ 

And.. how to read a jobs report:
  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/07/discouraged-workers-are-not-why-unemployment-fell/ 

Krugman has a great chart that shows the Employment/Population Ratio for Age 25 to 54 year olds, and argues that it is better to remove the younger people (age 16-24) and older people (age 55+) because it creates "noise" due to demographic shifts, and that for reasons I also described earlier, the unemployment rate itself is a bad indicator but the employment/population ration is a better indicator and less noisy.  Note that his chart shows that this E/P ratio dropped like a rock as the Great Recession started and stopped dropping when the Great Recession officially ended in mid 2009. And for this age group E/P has not recovered since.  

  http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/07/the-employment-situation/ 

In : Miscellaneous 



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Timothy McBride Timothy D. McBride, Ph.D. is a Professor at the Brown School, Washington University in St. Louis. Here you can find musings on health policy and other issues. Opinions are my own, and not those of my employer. Contact: mcbridetd@gmail.com