Based on the report published last week, about three-quarters (74.2%, or 293,984 people) of the new enrollment in Medicaid (from October 1 to November 2) occurred in the 26 states (including D.C.).  This means that the remaining increase in enrollment -- 25.8%, or 102,277 people -- has occurred in the 25 states that have not expanded Medicaid so far.

This may not seem like a surprise, because perhaps some might ask: of course the new enrollment is occurring mostly in the states that expanded Medicaid!  Some might wonder why there is any new enrollment in Medicaid at all in the states not expanded the program.

Of course what this reflects is that in fact many people in the states not expanding Medicaid are currently eligible for the program, but have not signed up for some reason.  So perhaps the news here is that 102,277 of the new enrollees in Medicaid come from states that did not technically expand the program.  This means of course we will have Medicaid expansion even in states that have not formally expanded the program.

(Figures cited here based on computations made by author from notice of enrollment released last week.)